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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."